Peak Oil is reality of our time. What's more, the exact date there is no meaning, and the only thing that from the beginning of this century, and the highest since 2005, we find ourselves at the top of the extraction of transient spikes in the back and forth, but the long-term permanent increase in extraction fossil-energy forever belongs to a bygone past. Currently, we expect to have a momentary increase in natural gas and perhaps coal-oil already but not really. And by the way I am still the world's population is growing-that is, the amount of available fossil energy per capita is falling earth. This process takes longer for some time. For now, we watch its impact on television, so there is nothing to worry .... But
-note the that this is only the beginning of this process. Can and should ask ourselves the question-what's next? Now
possible scenarios is further five:
first is a hypothetical possibility of replacing existing energy sources and maintaining the new industrial civilization of today, its further growth and expansion of the successive inhabitants of our beautiful planet. It sounds very beautiful-but I have only one question-what can give the energy source replacing fossil fuels in the appropriate scale and time? The real answers are only two-photovoltaics and nuclear reactors working at the track. Photovoltaics alone is not sufficient to maintain the existing network of energy-I do not provide electricity when needed, and the ability to store it is not. And that's it. After the last disaster in Japan can see that nuclear energy in every form poses more risks than we usually expect. I think that governments and society will be to get it all over the world now firmly oppose. So the path is already closed-because before it can move the construction of new reactors, our resources will be exhausted to the extent that this construction will be already impossible ... Besides the exploitation of what we have already at the most likely result in subsequent disasters, and getting bigger, longer completely legitimate opposition to them.
So-absolutely no faith, so that we can get out of Peak Oil-namely the technology in a way in which humanity has penetrated the previous energy crises.
second scenario-perhaps among the illusions about the implementation of First, it takes the development of industry, brings more and more, more and dirtier energy, getting bigger at the expense-see tar sands, shale gas, etc., which is used to maintain the illusion of civilization-although in fact, a growing share of available resources is consumed only for This acquisition, and so decreasing amounts of energy. This scenario is currently processed in the dominant part of the world, who must stop a complete collapse. Just at one point we come to the precipice. And there will be no possibility of movement. Resources in August will stand just too costly to obtain energy. All energy prices soar into space first and then the market will disappear altogether, probably along with paper money. I can happen in a fairly short time-we had a foretaste of what in 2008 was that's not the end, but boldly end of the world as we know it might look like.
So we have a potential third-world opportunity to measure consciously phased out from fossil fuels towards more zrownowarzonego operation, public transportation, as more energy-efficient privatization gradually replaces (in terms of journeys without loads d. .. individually by car), our homes and farms gradually will restrict consumption of fossil fuels, and garden produce increasingly visible part of the food we needed. So it looks like the Polish partially a nightmare of the 80's, partly as Cuba after the Soviet collapse, partly as a dream lovers of permaculture. Gradually, acting in this way we keep quite tolerable level, although completely revised life. In smaller communities, with only sporadic movement into the far distances and local disposal of their goods and services. In this arrangement, only large centralized state would then be needed for anything ...., but apart from that it can operate. Unfortunately, this need-to that was a large society understands and huge, often state-enforced system of legal and investment. In short-conscious and enlightened government, capable of punching working in the long term, and look favorable conditions .... This can happen in some places in the world-and what I also poniektore countries at this angle even describe. Unfortunately, the conscious government and favorable conditions They usually occur in different places, so I can be a dilemma what to choose. Fortunately, in Poland there is no such dilemma-there is not here neither one nor the other-no, but that is about to Agepo.
So we have come to the script calling it the fourth-abbreviated as "a reflection of the collapse", ie a situation in which you structure and the previous state simply collapse in August (or continue to operate formally, but I completely ignored), however, still enough resources to maintain a basic minimum the level of most of society, and further community is able to organize locally, to ensure the safety and operation of the local framework. Of course, finance and international trade in such a situation-if at all will remain, it is only in rudimentary form, the great city largely deserted in August, and life will be heavy and dangerous outside the local communities, but after a short period breakdowns rather large portion of civilization is szanase to rebuild on a new basis-so you can also call it a "big reset"
And finally the fifth scenario-just Mad Max. Unfortunately, in many ways quite realistic. There are cracks in both the state, as well as of local communities. This then becomes a new order from scratch, but at the start of his term no one is able to provide security to farmers-which simply means plunder what they can and the lack of any connection with the constancy of food production, rapidly decreasing population passes through a stage robbery the gathering-hunting and only then again to a small farming opatrego a fortified settlement.
Well-world is changing-and it changes the page as described above. Probably will be just that in different places, maybe even in different regions present different scenarios, there are states of the above. It can be predicted from such North Africa (and maybe an inch) and Haiti in August to fight the Mad Max, and also from different regions of the United States will look completely different after the collapse of the state (the longer on this wonder, the more certain I it seems)
But I'm very interested, and so only two things-what might be the future of Polish-and after it is Agepo (sadly died down a bit lately, by the General overload the whole three of us-someone has ochte say something?), and the second thing-where to find the best prospects for the future.
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