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Europe or the USA? The real value of the property

As an exacerbation of the global crisis energy, humanity, of course, in some way to adjust (but rather for the majority of experiencing less pleasant). But it would be naïve to assume that each touches the same way. Clearly this will be the world's countries and regions that lose, or even into chaos, and those that lose little, or maintain its present level. All you really need to deep crisis due to decreased energy consumption in the world-that the rest would be even better. Of course, a "cover" for this is the financial crisis-who will finish sooner or later some country-consumers of energy. What's more-it can be assumed that in case of drastic decline in living standards (and consumption) in the U.S. or southern Europe may experience a momentary revival of the global economy. And one of those things happen. The current showdown between the euro and the dollar reminds me of the fight two boxers-who get paid only for winning the fight, and since the money depend on their future life. None of them can not give up, and both are already in a position such that the only way to save the transaction after the fight but their life- first need to win this fight-without a victory they can not afford such an operation. If the dollar hyperinflation-it will devour the euro almost automatically become an important (and perhaps main) account and the reserve currency of the world. PIIGS problems can be in such a case, simply print the-becoming small compared to world demand for euros. If the euro becomes the world is unbelievable-the dollar, for a time at least.

It seems that we have a boolean option-or the U.S. will fall to European levels of energy consumption (because the world will no longer provide for its green papers), or waiting PIIGS scale collapse in Argentina. Such a decrease in consumption would probably be sufficient for a few years, then there will be another crisis and then will have to adapt. Poland this is rather in the European basket and fall of the dollar to us just for a moment he could go to health. In the most optimistic (for us) scenario and the euro will survive the collapse of the dollar and becomes the world reserve currency. Of course, the euro area as a whole becomes a joyful consumption zone, and the countries on the periphery deliver goods and services consumed en masse by the Spaniards and Slovaks, of course until the next crisis and the final decay.

as potential bankrupts should, of course, also bet on countries that are in poor and corrupt local governments are experiencing an energy crisis (peak oil in Argentina was 1998). This can also work well in today's world-known that the crises and the collapse of will-over time, becoming more serious and affect more and more players-but the greater the crisis in one country, the greater is the state that will give it a long breath. If per capita oil consumption in the U.S. falls to Spain or Japan today (and this can be achieved under-provisioning simple change to small cars, moving to more efficient and smaller houses, etc.) then this would save in the world of 7 million barrels per day-that is the optimistic scenario for 5 years mild decline in production. This would give time for some may be aware the mass of the situation and buy the next time. Including the possible rapid development of possible alternatives-Europe and the U.S. come down to the level of Polish most of the 80's and if you escape the war-economy is in a modified mankind will once again prosper.

If you fall will be faster or not to escape the war-will be even harder. Although the period of rapid change-and this is certain-there will always be some who are on one of the market trend or a momentary-mania after temporary improvement of the situation just earn.

Sewing A Padded Tankini

Now, what wiser now sober housing after the event, one wonders if the property is really worth in Poland. I am confident that everyone will soon have come to the conclusion that the "real estate is always becoming more expensive," there is something wrong and begin to treat them normally-ie, like any other good necessary for life or good investment (not speculation). So we go to the investment. Real estate as an investment, it is not a simple matter. It can be bought in order to hire and to achieve a profit on this. Of course, being the owner of a rental property is combined with a fairly sizeable responsibilities and risks niepłacącego / difficult to remove the tenant or the devastation of property.

So-average large city in Poland (OK-I know the issues from a local backyard - but rather it does not matter where, because everywhere the situation is probably similar) minimum market rent 2 - bedroom flat fell from 1200 zł to 700 zł. I understand that the lowest prices to be found in the notices. It is very important that these prices are for transactions outside the formal market-that is, among family, friends, etc.. while the lowest price traded in the market-ie it can be assumed that the correct, if you want to always rely on the tenants. On this basis, we can look at real investment horizon-even in the relatively safe investment falls, to have a chance to return in 5-10 years. In extreme cases-a risky escape from the money in safe assets-wydłużmy a little-maybe even to 12-14 years, but the investment of the 14 - year rate of return is already a combination of extreme desperation on the one hand, and probably a morbid optimism about the safety of this investment on the other.

That we have the basic data. We can begin to count. For a simplicity, assume that the profit from the rent we are for an average of 10 months (the remaining time may be enough to look for tenants, throwing niepłacących and finance overhaul-quite optimistic assumption).

In this way, income is seven thousand zł year. In the 10 - year rate of return we have the amount of 70 thousand. zł for 2 - bedroom apartment in a big city in Poland, in the average district. And this is a high price. Specifically-this is the absolute upper limit of sanity. On the other hand-cheap-it will be just under 35 thousand. for such housing. These considerations, of course, make sense as long as it is assumed constancy of the current market-that is, the relative stability of the purchasing power of tenants and maintenance costs of housing stability. I am convinced that this assumption is unjustified optimism, and over the next few-dozen years the purchasing power of the average tenant (ie the average, rather poor family-because who is looking for these 2 - room flats?) Approaches the cost of living (especially heating) of such property. Which simply means that the value of housing as an investment will seek to zero (it can not exaggerate-a bottle of vodka, because who will give apartment for free?).

yet written a 2-room apartments in the city-because it is the most liquid part of the market in Poland. And in fact, most of the prices of other real estate is a derivative of the price of such housing-whether by the absurd prices of building land (because the profit on the construction of housing over the past year was insane), or higher prices, or very well located residents and property prices completely worthless (as in the former state farms devastated apartment block).

With production-like properties of agricultural land, should of course perform the same calculations. Come out of them, of course, a similar comparison-though out the profitability of such an investment is impaired by the hard-payment area so as to the value of agricultural land in Poland-is nothing at all-except, of course, knows that today's prices have no connection with reality.