Recent events in Egypt and around the least surprised the public opinion - but it was predictable. What's more: you can not predict exactly what the truth where it will be another explosion, but you can fairly easily estimate its probability.
known about who calls the revolution from the purely human.
here must be a combination of larger number of young men do not have any prospects for the future - they are always soldiers every revolution and every rebellion. It's just that they usually will not do anything.
are only explosive, giving energy and life to society, but looking quite harmless.
second component must be mature men who already have adequate life experience, and most importantly - family. They can behave responsibly-as they come to the conclusion that this may no longer be considered to be that it will not. Of course, not that I mean professional revolutionaries nor przeintelektualizowanych gryzipiórków, but simply ordinary people, not knowing and wondering why it is wrong but simply sentient, that is wrong. The objective is always the same-current power.
Each explosion was followed when mature, 30-40 year old men do not were able to maintain families, which leads us logically to the next element of the puzzle:
wives forties.
course you can argue that what they have to say women in the orthodox Muslim society? Perhaps not much in the public space, but nobody did not wmówi that, in view of two men they at least do not try to function together, talk together and keep children in common. Perhaps the Islamic culture of delaying the communication, but certainly (as a rule, of course), such communication exists. If
comes to the point where either by inflation or the usual increase in food prices is no longer a way to feed the family - it is the wife sooner or later bring their husbands to believe that this can not go. When I try to increase revenue are obviously doomed to failure, it begins to boil. When mature men no longer see hope for their families sink into apathy (which is subject to Agepo - because I predict the future of Polish), or become leaders in the twenties. And here comes the explosion,
which swept away the existing powers, unless it will protect the machine guns.
And now to the merits: the current rise in food prices is more sustainable. Even if a large part is due to escape from the dollar and so the food crisis is quite clearly in sight. More countries will erupt and that the situation will only become less stable. Because it's probably obvious - especially the change of power does not quell the crisis, it may temporarily, but in the long run it is impossible. A
risk factors are fairly obvious-the share of people in the 17-25 years population and the level of unemployment on the one hand, and the percentage of income spent by the average family on food. And of course im a country is increasingly dependent on world food market, the price increases are more difficult to avoid. You can reverse the phenomenon as an example given Argentina - the country, to put it mildly, self-sufficient żywnościowo. This country for the variety is definitely the wave of rising, which will continue for many years.
At this point, you have already drawn up a list of countries likely to be wrong and that should be avoided and those against whom there are still some perspective. Though, of course, are the foundations, you can talk about them in the long run, simply because they will. Once blow-but when and how, in the meantime, markets will behave? I totally do not know-but you can guess that starts from the countries in which the largest part of the average household budget is food.
